Publications

The Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) is one of the multilateral agreements that prohibits an entire category of weapons of mass distruction. However, it currently lacks a comprehensive and transparent verification mechanism. The Working Group established at the Ninth Review Conference (2022) is discussing, among other issues, the verification and compliance mechanism for the BWC. Regardless of the outcome of these debates, many questions remain concerning the technical and political foundations necessary for such a mechanism, should it be implemented in the future.

This manuscript is the first in a series of working papers analyzing available technical capabilities that could support future verification and compliance measures in the BWC. Specifically, it focuses on microbial forensics, a broad field that integrates areas like epidemiology, immunology, microbiology, and more, to identify and characterize pathogens. Unlike epidemiology, which has similar goals, microbial forensics mainly aims at attribution — the identification of responsible actor(s) in cases of biological weapon use. To accomplish this, it leverages advances in science and technology, including significant progress in genomic sequencing, computational tools, miniaturization, and automation of lab work-flows. These methods must be specific, sensitive, and reliable to meet the needs of microbial forensics.

Various options for a verification mechanism within the framework of the BWC are conceivable. Microbial forensics can be applied both for an ex-ante (early detection of the BWC provisions violation for preventing biological weapons development) and ex-post (identifying perpetrators in post-incident scenarios) verification concepts in the BWC. There are several documented examples of utilizing microbial forensics to investigate the cases biological weapons use, both by state and non-state actors. One prominent example is the investiagtion in the case of anthrax laced letters in the USA (Amerithrax, 2001) that to significant extend shaped and propelled the development of microbial forensics. Since then, the field has changed substantively, judging by the increase in international publications and some national initiatives (e.g. in UK Microbial Forensics Consortium) to harness expertise in this discipline.

Expertise and continuous training of specialists are essential to effectively apply microbial forensics and ensure that high standards and requirements are met throughout the entire chain from sample planning and collection through transfer, storage, analysis, data interpretation and reporting. Here, future guidelines and procedures that could be applied within the framework of the BWC can build on the experience gained from the United Nations Secretary-General’s Mechanism (UNSGM) for investigating alleged use of biological and chemical weapons, which draws on a roster of experts, consultants, and laboratories, and includes regular training for professionals to maintain expertise and best practices.

Microbial forensics is one of the many disciplines that can be used in any future BWC verification and compliance frameworks. It should be viewed as support, not a replacement for other procedures such as classical forensics and information gathering to establish the chain of custody. Furthermore, the rapid evolution of technology introduces new applications that can benefit the Convention and could be incorporated into its future toolkit of methods. However, ongoing monitoring of these developments is essential. Therefore, establishing a mandated S&T advisory board alongside the BWC verification mechanism would be a prudent step.